The government is expected to consider designating areas that are exposed to more than 50 millisieverts per year of radiation from the crippled Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant as zones that are difficult for local residents to return to possibly for the next several decades and buying out tracts of land there.
Article at Mainichi Daily News: http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/national/archive/news/2011/12/14/20111214p2a00m0na021000c.html
Showing posts with label radioactive contamination. Show all posts
Showing posts with label radioactive contamination. Show all posts
2011-12-15
2011-12-11
Speculating about future cancers from nuclear accident
Last week, the Associated Press ran a story speculating that future cancers from the FDII accident might be hidden.
This notion of 'hidden' cancers is silly and unscientific. The scientific standard for drug development, that if there is no statistically significant difference, then there is no effect, applies here. If there is no statistically significant rise in cancers, then there was no effect. But, without control populations, there will be no sound way of determining statistical significance.
My hypothesis is that more cancers may be found simply because no population has been studied with this thoroughness for the time they are planning. My concern is that, whether more are found or fewer are found, the results will not be able to be tied to the accident because no control populations are in the study. To be scientifically valid, there need to be control populations away from Fukushima, preferably a set of smaller populations scattered around Japan. While the government study may protect the children, scientific value will be lost without controls.
This notion of 'hidden' cancers is silly and unscientific. The scientific standard for drug development, that if there is no statistically significant difference, then there is no effect, applies here. If there is no statistically significant rise in cancers, then there was no effect. But, without control populations, there will be no sound way of determining statistical significance.
My hypothesis is that more cancers may be found simply because no population has been studied with this thoroughness for the time they are planning. My concern is that, whether more are found or fewer are found, the results will not be able to be tied to the accident because no control populations are in the study. To be scientifically valid, there need to be control populations away from Fukushima, preferably a set of smaller populations scattered around Japan. While the government study may protect the children, scientific value will be lost without controls.
2011-12-03
A third of Namie, Fukushima, residents will not return
A survey of town citizens by the town of Namie, Fukushima, found that a third of its evacuated residents do not plan to return.
Essentially all of Namie's residents evacuated following the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. The survey was distributed to 18,448 of 24,200 evacuated residents in November. Of these, 10,487 (56.8%) responded. Of these, 43.7% answered that they would return if infrastructure is restored and if other residents return "to some degree." Another 15.7% would return if radiation declines and infrastructure is restored, and 5% would return if the evacuation zone is lifted. A full 32.5% responded that they will not return.
Sources:
1) Nihon Keizai Shimbun, North Kanto Edition, 2011 Dec 3, pl 38
Essentially all of Namie's residents evacuated following the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. The survey was distributed to 18,448 of 24,200 evacuated residents in November. Of these, 10,487 (56.8%) responded. Of these, 43.7% answered that they would return if infrastructure is restored and if other residents return "to some degree." Another 15.7% would return if radiation declines and infrastructure is restored, and 5% would return if the evacuation zone is lifted. A full 32.5% responded that they will not return.
Sources:
1) Nihon Keizai Shimbun, North Kanto Edition, 2011 Dec 3, pl 38
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