Speculating about future cancers from nuclear accident

Last week, the Associated Press ran a story speculating that future cancers from the FDII accident might be hidden.

This notion of 'hidden' cancers is silly and unscientific. The scientific standard for drug development, that if there is no statistically significant difference, then there is no effect, applies here. If there is no statistically significant rise in cancers, then there was no effect. But, without control populations, there will be no sound way of determining statistical significance.


My hypothesis is that more cancers may be found simply because no population has been studied with this thoroughness for the time they are planning. My concern is that, whether more are found or fewer are found, the results will not be able to be tied to the accident because no control populations are in the study. To be scientifically valid, there need to be control populations away from Fukushima, preferably a set of smaller populations scattered around Japan. While the government study may protect the children, scientific value will be lost without controls.